Crypto Signals Win Rate: What's Real vs What's Hype
"Our signals have a 95% win rate!" You've seen that claim everywhere. But when you follow those signals, somehow you still lose money. How?
This article breaks down exactly how win rates are calculated — and the three tricks providers use to inflate them.
What Win Rate Actually Means
Win rate = number of winning trades ÷ total closed trades × 100.
Simple. But the key word is closed. A trade is only closed when it hits either the SL or the TP. Until then, it's open — and open trades should never be counted in your win rate.
📊 Correct formula: Win Rate = Wins ÷ (Wins + Losses) × 100
Where Losses = trades that hit the stop-loss.
The 3 Ways Providers Inflate Win Rates
1. Including "Target Hit" Without Confirmation
Some channels post "TP1 hit ✅" the moment price touches the TP level — even if it immediately reversed and later hit the SL. They count the TP hit as a win. You, if you weren't watching in real time, took the SL. They claim a win. You took a loss.
2. Keeping Losing Trades "Open" Forever
A signal goes badly. Instead of admitting the SL got hit, the provider says "trade still open, holding." Months later the price might recover. They post "win!" — but a real trader would have been stopped out weeks ago.
🚨 Any trade that doesn't have a defined SL should be treated as "undefined risk." Never take a signal without a clear stop-loss level.
3. Cherry-Picking the Calculation Period
"We had a 90% win rate last week!" — because they only sent 3 signals all week, and 2 of them won. Statistically meaningless. Look for win rates calculated over at least 50–100 trades before drawing conclusions.
BullRunSignals Win Rate — How We Calculate It
Every signal in BullRunSignals is stored in a database with its outcome logged as WIN or LOSS the moment it closes. Here's the breakdown from recent data:
| Filter Level | Trades Tracked | Win Rate | What It Means |
|---|---|---|---|
| No filter (all signals) | 1,500+ | 40–42% | Raw technical signals, no AI |
| Score ≥ 7/10 | 800+ | 44–48% | Good setups only |
| ML filter ≥ 55% | 400 | 78%+ | AI-approved signals |
| ML filter ≥ 65% | 295 | 85%+ | High-confidence only |
| Best combo (Kraken) | 47 | 89%+ | Kraken 1h SHORT ML-filtered |
We publish all of these numbers publicly because transparency is the only honest approach. The 40% raw number is what happens without our ML filter — it's worse than a coin flip once you factor in fees. The 78%+ ML-filtered number is what users actually experience.
Win Rate vs Expectancy — The Number That Really Matters
Win rate alone doesn't tell you if a signal service is profitable. You also need the R/R ratio. The combination of both gives you expectancy:
Expectancy = (Win Rate × Avg Win%) − (Loss Rate × Avg Loss%)
For BullRunSignals ML-filtered signals (Kraken, last 4 days of real trades):
- Win rate: 59.1% (real executed trades)
- Avg win: +1.89% per position
- Avg loss: -1.50% per position
- Expectancy: +0.505% per trade on position size
That means every trade you take, on average, returns 0.5% of your position size. With 11 trades per day and 3% risk per trade, that's compounding fast over time.
How to Verify Any Signal Provider's Win Rate
- Request their complete trade history — every signal, win and loss
- Verify that cancelled or open trades are excluded from the win rate calculation
- Check that each signal had an explicit SL defined at time of posting (not added later)
- Count the trades yourself — don't trust a "summary" screenshot
- Look for at least 100 trades before trusting any percentage
📊 See Our Live Stats
BullRunSignals publishes real-time win rate stats on the dashboard — updated after every closed trade. No cherry-picking, no open trades counted.
View Live Stats →